Greater Than's EIC Accelerator Crash-Risk AI Meets a Sales Slump

Greater Than sells an artificial intelligence that reads a car's driving data and estimates how likely the driver is to crash. In May 2020 the European Innovation Council picked its Brussels company, Greater Than SA, in the Green Deal round of the EIC Accelerator pilot, and the EU paid €1,975,662.50 towards a €2,822,375 project called Road Lifeguard, meant to turn that score into a tool that prevents accidents in real time. The Commission's list of selected companies names "Greater Than S.A." in Brussels as the only beneficiary of the project, on a grant-only basis.

Six years later the AI is a product with two prominent partners, the motor sport federation FIA and the carmaker Honda. The business around it is in a far weaker position. The group's net sales fell from SEK 40.6 million in 2024 to SEK 5.7 million in 2025, after its largest customer stopped paying and the two companies went to court, according to its 2025 annual report and a Nasdaq Stockholm disciplinary decision.

A Belgian Grantee Inside a Swedish Listed Group

Greater Than is usually described as a Swedish company, and the EC list gives a Belgian one. Both are correct. The Belgian enterprise register lists Greater Than, a public limited company registered on 26 September 2003, as active, with Johanna Forseke as managing director since 1 May 2026. CORDIS gives its address at the time of the grant as Avenue du Port 86C in Brussels, which the company still lists as its Brussels office; the register shows the registered seat moved to Boulevard Saint-Lazare on 9 December 2024.

The listed parent is Greater Than AB in Stockholm. Its 2025 annual report says the AB owns every share of the Belgian SA except one, held by founder Sten Forseke because Belgian company law requires two shareholders, and that the business has been run since 2004 in the Belgian SA and its subsidiary Greater Than Svenska AB. The Belgian company's own accounts, filed with the National Bank of Belgium, confirm that it owns 100% of Greater Than Svenska AB and that "financial support is provided by the parent company Greater Than AB". The group report counts no employees in Belgium in 2024 or 2025. The parent's governance page names Sten Forseke as founder and director, Anders Lindelöf as co-founder and chief technology officer, and representatives of Sten Forseke, Cuarto AB and First Kraft AB on the nomination committee; the shares moved from Aktietorget to Nasdaq First North on 17 March 2017, according to Skatteverket.

The SA itself is small. Its 2025 accounts show a loss of €162,505, equity of €519,407 against share capital of €5,118,368, and a book value of €2,438,139 for the Swedish subsidiary, whose own equity the same filing gives as SEK 335,461. The auditor's report on those accounts is a qualified opinion, and its basis section concerns that participation. The EU grant itself does not appear as a separate line in the published abbreviated accounts.

The Technology: Driving Patterns Instead of Driver Profiles

Greater Than's pitch, in its CORDIS report, is that car insurance should be priced on "how you drive and not by who you are". Conventional telematics systems, the company says, rely on "predefined thresholds or triggered events"; its own model scores entire trips. The CORDIS objective describes an on-board diagnostics reader that sends curvature, acceleration and speed to the cloud, where the AI compares them with "500 million past driving situations" and rates the risk. The company claimed a "risk assessment accuracy of 99.98%" and seven patents; neither figure was independently verified for this article.

The product has since moved off the dongle. Greater Than now says its AI works on GPS data from any source, and sells two scores, crash probability and climate impact, through an API or a dashboard. In April 2026 the company published an independent validation by AI researcher Anders Arpteg, who found that drivers with higher scores accounted for a disproportionate share of claims. The validation was commissioned and announced by the company; the full report is not public.

What Road Lifeguard Promised, and What CORDIS Shows

Road Lifeguard ran from 1 October 2020 to 30 September 2022 under the EIC Accelerator pilot's Green Deal topic. Ten days after the May 2020 cut-off, and four months before the grant was signed, Greater Than announced it would stop selling car insurance to consumers under its Enerfy brand and sell only to businesses. The CORDIS summary nonetheless still describes a consumer app that "enables insurance premium discounts".

The published periodic report covers October 2021 to September 2022. It says the company piloted with four partners, used claims data to confirm that its risk score predicts accident likelihood and injury, and found that app users drove with 33% less risk than non-users, gamification cut risk by up to 45%, and fleet managers' risk reviews cut it by 7%. It also describes an experiment with alarms and voice messages for drivers in high-risk situations, concluding that personalised voices worked best. The report for the project's last period still speaks of the future: "we strongly believe that by the end of this project we will be able to advance our current solution into a scalable standard application". No results, deliverables or publications are listed on the CORDIS results page.

1. AI that predicts crash risk from driving dataDeliveredClaims analysis in the CORDIS report; company-commissioned validation in April 2026.
2. Driver feedback and gamificationDeliveredMeasured in the pilots; AI Coach launched July 2025 with per-trip feedback.
3. Real-time warnings to drivers in high-risk situationsNot achievedTested as an experiment; no product with in-drive voice warnings has been announced.
4. Scalable standard application with global partnersPartlyFIA and Honda deals signed in 2025 and 2026; sales from them not yet material.
5. Final project reportingThinOne periodic summary; no deliverables or results published.

What Happened After the Grant

The money that followed the grant came from the stock market. In January 2021 Greater Than AB sold shares worth about SEK 136 million to Cuarto AB, part of the Ehrnrooth family's Nidoco group, naming Zurich, MSIG, MS First Capital and Tryg as insurance partners. In March 2022 it signed a partnership with ABAX, a Norwegian fleet telematics company, adding over 200,000 vehicles to its platform. Net sales rose from SEK 4.3 million in 2021 to SEK 40.6 million in 2024, according to the 2024 annual report.

That growth rested on one customer. Nasdaq's disciplinary committee found that about 90% of Greater Than's net sales in the first half of 2024 came from ABAX, which had terminated the agreement for renegotiation in February 2024 and "for several months" had not paid any invoices. Greater Than sued ABAX in October 2024 for NOK 182,295,535 for breach of contract, and in January 2025 for more than SEK 650 million over its intellectual property. On 30 July 2026 the two companies settled: ABAX pays SEK 64 million, both sides confirm that no infringement of Greater Than's intellectual property occurred, and neither admits liability, as also reported by Nyhetsbyrån Direkt.

The new business is built on partners. In October 2025 the FIA launched its Driver Safety Index, a subscription service that runs on Greater Than's AI, and the final licence was signed in December 2025. In February 2026 Greater Than announced a licence with Honda for a crash risk map built from Honda's connected-car data, to launch in Japan in 2026, with Honda in charge of sales.

The Money and the Fines

When it first announced the FIA deal as a memorandum of understanding in August 2025, without naming the partner, Greater Than put the estimated gross revenue at €1.4 billion over an eight-year product life, with a shared target of about €100 million a year within three years, 60% of it for Greater Than, and said revenue would start in the first quarter of 2026. In April 2026 Nasdaq's disciplinary committee fined the company SEK 946,856 because that announcement did not allow "a complete and correct assessment" of its significance, and for delaying information the exchange had requested. A second decision added SEK 378,743 over the August 2024 half-year release, which the committee said gave a positive picture while ABAX was not paying. The company disclosed both fines the same day.

The 2025 year-end report shows an operating loss of SEK 46.6 million and says the sales cycle for the FIA product is now 3 to 12 months, so revenue would come later than planned. Two share issues in late 2025 raised about SEK 81.7 million before set-offs and costs, of which about SEK 48.3 million arrived as cash, leaving the group with SEK 46.0 million at the year end, according to the annual report. In June 2026 three large shareholders, Cuarto AB, First Kraft AB and Loer AB, agreed a SEK 15 million loan facility at 10% interest, approved at an extraordinary meeting in July. The half-year report for 2026 shows a loss of SEK 22.5 million for six months and says the ABAX settlement will lift the third-quarter operating result by about SEK 40 million.

Why Europe Should Care

About 19,400 people died on EU roads in 2025, 3% fewer than in 2024, and most member states are off track for the EU goal of halving road deaths and serious injuries by 2030, according to the Commission's European Road Safety Charter. A European model that scores drivers on real crash outcomes, and that ties driving style to energy use, fits both that target and the Green Deal call that funded it.

Its route to scale, though, now runs through the FIA, a global motor sport and mobility federation, and a Japanese carmaker rather than European insurers, and the Belgian entity that received the EU money has no staff. Whether Europe keeps the value of a technology it helped finance depends on whether the Swedish parent survives long enough to earn from those licences.

The Verdict

Greater Than has not been asked for comment for this article. It is based entirely on public records, company statements and EU project data, linked throughout.